Математична модель температурного режиму в навчальному містечку ХНАУ ім. В. В. Докучаєва

Abstract

Наведено результати аналізу середньорічної температури повітря на метеорологічній станції Рогань (дослідне поле ХНАУ) за період спостережень з 1968 р. до 2012 р. Установлено, що середньорічна температура протягом 45 років має тенденцію до підвищення на фоні періодичних коливань. Зміна мікрокліматичних особливостей регіонального клімату призводить до просторової зміни глобального клімату.

Приведены результаты анализа среднегодовой температуры воздуха на метеорологической станции Рогань (опытное поле ХНАУ) за период наблюдений с 1968 г. по 2012 г. Установлено, что среднегодовая температура в течение 45 лет имеет тенденцию к повышению на фоне периодических колебаний. Изменение микроклиматических особенностей регионального климата приводит к пространственной изменения глобального климата.

The results of the changes of the air temperature at the meteorological station of Rogan (the experimental field of KhNAU) during the period 1968-2012 are given. The equalization of the results by the method of moving average was made to simplify the further calculations that allowed to get rid of random fluctuations. During the research, the method of moving average, correlation and regression analysis, graphical methods were used. The correlation coefficient for the average annual temperatures after equalization were found. Testing the significance of the correlation coefficients was carried out using t – the criteria of Student. The presence of the average annual temperature dependence by the time is proved. The equation of a straight regression line was recorded to find the analytical expression. Space and time variability of the average annual air temperature was revealed with their help. Overall, during the period of the instrumental observations from 1968 to 2012 the average annual temperature increased on 1,78o С. The deviation values calculated from the regression equation from the measured average annual temperatures were analyzed during the research. The dynamics of changes in the annual air temperature repeats periodic fluctuations. Therefore the approximation of the above mentioned deviations by the method of the least squares was carried out. The studies show that the deviation of the average annual temperature from the straight regression line describes the fluctuations with a period T = 9 years. It should be noted that the oscillation amplitude is 0.705o C. Change of the microclimatic particularities of the regional climate leads to the global climate spatial change.