Діагностика фінансової кризи на основі теорії нечітких множин

Abstract

Обґрунтовано методичний підхід до діагностики кризових симптомів підприємства та ступеня глибини його фінансової кризи на прикладі підприємств роздрібної торгівлі, що є циклічною послідовністю з восьми взаємопов’язаних етапів. Запропонована методика ґрунтується на теорії нечітких множин, що дає можливість поєднати кількісні та якісні показники, використовувати експертні знання, дає змогу легко вносити зміни та не потребує строгої точності, що в підсумку забезпечує високу адекватність оцінювання стадії розвитку фінансової кризи. Розроблено систему показників, що найбільш точно характеризують фінансовий стан підприємств торгівлі.

In the process of managing the enterprises from time to time, there are dysfunctions that complicate their functioning. Diagnosis is intended to identify the signs of these dysfunctions and the state of the enterprise. The precise identification of the stage of the financial crisis, from the correct choice of the indicators system for diagnostics depends on the degree of reliability of a financial crisis probability assessment and the degree of its depth and a set of necessary measures to prevent possible threats. The purpose of the article is to substantiate methodical approach to the diagnosis of the probability of a financial crisis and the degree of its depth on the example of retail companies based on the theory of fuzzy sets. It is proved that use of the methods for diagnosing financial crisis based on fuzzy-plural approach has a number of advantages in terms of uncertainty over traditional methods based on quantitative evaluation. Methodical approach to the diagnosis of crisis symptoms of the enterprise and the depth of its financial crisis are substantiated by the example of retail enterprises, which is a cyclic sequence of eight interrelated stages. The proposed method is based on the theory of fuzzy sets, which allows combining quantitative and qualitative indicators, using expert knowledge, allows making changes easily and does not require strict accuracy, which ultimately ensures high adequacy of evaluating financial crisis stage development. A system of indicators that most accurately characterizes financial state of retail trade enterprises is developed. The suggested methodological approach to the diagnosis of the financial crisis based on the theory of fuzzy sets application has a number of advantages: availability of input information (accounting and statistical reporting); greater assessment objectivity due to the possibility of applying quantitative indicators with a qualitative scale of benefits selected by experts; reduction to a single integral index of a set of quantitative and qualitative parameters. Diagnosing the stage of the financial crisis at retail enterprises through a fuzzy-multiple approach allows exploring the dynamics of crisis development, to identify the emergence of crisis symptoms in advance, and, accordingly, identify the sources of negative trends. According to the results of the diagnosis, enterprises should state the objectives of crisis management and formulate adequate measures to prevent possible threats that would correspond to the stages of crisis development on which they are located.