Сценарний підхід до прогнозування і планування прибутку підприємств

Abstract

Розглянуто сутність і види сценаріїв, надано дефініцію сценарного фінансового планування, формалізовано етапи процесу сценарного аналізу, систематизовано методи розробки сценаріїв, запропоновано схему планування на основі вибору альтернативних варіантів розвитку ситуації з когнітивною складовою.

Scenario analysis is one of the perspective approaches to planning and forecasting in the conditions of ambiguity, that allows receive a detailed description of the events sequence, which can possibly result in the desired and planned financial condition of the enterprise under various variants of its development. Critical assessment of the approaches to the specification of the scenario in a scientific literature allowed to define the scenario of financial forecasting and planning. The types of scenarios are considered and compared. The stages of the scenario analysis are formalized. Cognitive component is important for financial planning based on scenarios, because the efficiency of the scenario analysis depends on the professionalism and experts training. An exact variant of the plan is chosen by the subject making decisions. The methods of the scenarios development are systematized, the planning scheme on the grounds of the alternative choice variants is chosen by the subject making decisions. The methods of the scenarios development are systematized; the planning scheme on the grounds of the alternative variants of the situation development with a cognitive component is suggested. Taking into account the influence of net profit of the financial expenses, their response to the change of credit interest rate is analyzed. The scenario approach to the specification of gross margin depending on the change of the commodity turnover and sales prime cost by means of the Excel scenario dispatcher is used.